Two 2–1 teams, a divisional knife fight, and a short-week microscope. Seattle rides in hot after back-to-back wins; Arizona’s defense has teeth and the home crowd. Here’s the Ry-style breakdown.
The setup
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sept 25, 8:15 p.m. ET — Prime Video (local simulcasts in home markets). Stadium: State Farm Stadium, Glendale.
- Market line: Seattle -1.5; total 43.5 (moneylines around SEA -120/-126, ARI +100/+108 across books).
Form guide: what they’ve done through three weeks
Seattle (2–1)
- Results: L 17–13 vs SF; W 31–17 @ PIT; W 44–13 vs NO. The offense has leveled up each week, while the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17.
- QB1: Sam Darnold is completing ~70% with 663 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT; sacks kept reasonable (3). WR1-by-usage is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (22/323/1). Kenneth Walker III has 163 rush yds (4.2 YPC).
- Team profile: Second-best in the NFL in opponent points per game (15.7); per NFL.com team page, opponents are at 4.4 yards/play against them — sticky.
- Macro stat (efficiency): After Week 3, Seattle is No. 1 in DVOA (total), buoyed by strong ST and two decisive wins.
Arizona (2–1)
- Results: W 20–13 @ NO; W 27–22 vs CAR; L 16–15 @ SF (one-point road loss). Kyler Murray efficient, if conservative: 542 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT. Trey McBride leads receiving (17/182/1). Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. already impactful (10/142/1). Rookie RB Trey Benson has 125 rush yds at 6.0 YPC.
- Team profile: Cardinals’ defense has been tough vs the run (allowed 229 rush yds in 3 gms ≈ 76/g) and winning key downs (opponents just 12/39 on 3rd). Offense totals 829 yds (needs more explosives).
Injuries & availability (short-week swings)
Seahawks
- Back in the secondary: Julian Love (hamstring) and Devon Witherspoon (knee) practiced and are set to play. Great timing vs Murray. OT Josh Jones is out; Boye Mafe (toe) limited; Zach Charbonnet (foot) full.
Cardinals
- RB James Conner to IR (foot), shifting carries toward Trey Benson and Kyler’s legs. WR Zay Jones out (concussion). OT Paris Johnson Jr. (knee) and G Will Hernandez questionable. Depth CB Will Johnson doubtful.
Numbers that matter
- Pass game vs pressure: Seattle’s OL is dinged, but Darnold’s time-to-throw + quick game to JSN has traveled (295 @ PIT). Arizona’s front features Calais Campbell inside length and Josh Sweat’s rush versatility. Expect simulated pressures from DC Nick Rallis.
- Early-down success: Seattle’s defense is holding opponents to 4.4 YPP overall — that squeezes early downs and sets up pass-rush packages. Arizona’s offense has been methodical (829 yds total) with sporadic explosives (Benson/MHjr).
- 3rd down: Cards O 14/37 (37.8%); Cards D is getting off the field (opponents 12/39). If Seattle stays on schedule, that edge narrows.
- Red zone: Seattle’s two blowouts suggest conversion is trending up; Arizona’s style points to RZ targets for McBride off play-action.
Matchup keys (how this actually plays)
- JSN vs Cards’ underneath zones
If ARI leans disguise/creeper pressure, Smith-Njigba (slot option routes, crossers) is the chain-mover. He’s averaging 107.7 yds/g. - Benson’s burst vs SEA’s run fits
With Conner out, Trey Benson brings home-run speed, but Seattle’s front has been gap-sound (opponents 4.4 YPP) and rallying to the ball. Edge plays and toss-crack will test CB force (Witherspoon return helps). - Kyler’s legs as the pressure valve
Murray has 107 rush yds on 20 carries (5.3); QB draws/keepers are Arizona’s antidote if protection wobbles (Paris Johnson Jr. Q). Containing him on 3rd-and-medium is Seattle’s whole assignment. - Seahawks secondary continuity, finally
Love + Witherspoon elevates the disguise menu vs McBride/Harrison Jr. If Seattle wins middle-of-field leverage, it flips Arizona to field-goal drives.
Betting lens (line: SEA -1.5, 43.5)
- Side: Seattle carries the better down-to-down defense (No. 1 DVOA team through Week 3; 2nd in opp PPG) and gets two DB starters back. Arizona’s defense is legit — especially vs the run — but with Conner out and OL questions, sustained drives are a concern. Lean Seahawks -1.5.
- Total (43.5): Short week + two defenses that have tackled well → slight lean Under 43.5 unless game script turns into scramble-ball from Kyler.
- Player angles to monitor (not official picks):
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba receptions/yds over (usage, + matchup vs zones).
- Trey McBride receptions (Cardinals’ third-down and RZ go-to).
- Kyler Murray rush yards (if OL is short-handed).
Ry’s call
Seattle’s defensive floor + returning starters in the secondary are the difference in a game that will be won on 3rd down. Murray keeps it tight with legs and McBride, but the explosive/efficient pitch-and-catch from Darnold to JSN swings a couple possessions.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20 (SEA -1.5, lean Under 43.5).